Ahead of 2025, we took the opportunity to explore Kairos Future’s foresight report, which has now resulted in seven shifts leading up to 2030. Today, we will focus on the third shift. Follow us regularly if you want to gain insights into the driving forces that will shape our near future—starting this year.

Politics: From Orthodoxy to Pragmatism

“Facts kick,” the well-known professor and Social Democratic thinker Gunnar Myrdal used to say – in other words, reality always catches up with even the most well-formulated ideas. This becomes evident when a new kind of crime reveals that the justice system is no longer sufficient, or when weak language skills in upper secondary schools and universities lead to a return to older, more proven, fact-based ways of learning languages.

In the U.S., Donald Trump was elected with support from a new societal outlook where migration became a central issue. During Biden’s time in office, opposition to immigration has increased sharply, while the proportion of foreign-born individuals in the country reached record levels – 15.6%, clearly surpassing the previous peak from 1890, when the figure was 14.8%. These numbers played a decisive role in the election outcome.

The mining industry and dependency on China are also concrete realities that make themselves known. In a similar way, nuclear power’s role as an alternative to coal and oil has led even climate activists like Greta Thunberg to begin accepting it as a necessary solution.

And finally – during the autumn, the symbolically significant step was taken to abandon the budget surplus goal in public finances, after much hesitation. Perhaps it’s time to ease the economic handbrake a bit. Reality is making itself known. Facts kick.

Over the next four weeks, we will present four more shifts that will affect us leading up to 2030. But as we’ve said before: in a world where so much is uncertain, it’s wise to focus on what we know is stable – and be prepared for sudden turns in what cannot be predicted.

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